This could be the most profitable market insight you read this year...

The Oil 'Contango Spike'
that could make you 936%

<== This historic spike means something BIG's about to happen to the oil price

 

Right now, several in-the-know investors are gearing up to make the trade of the decade...

Read on and discover how an extremely rare 'super-contango' in the oil market could make YOU gains ranging from 156% right up to 936%

Dear Friend,

The oil market is lying to you.

And it's a lie that could put gains right up to 936% in your pocket in one of the worst periods of stock market history.

In the pages that follow, I'm going to show you why oil at under $50 is just a dangerous illusion.

You'll learn why the oil market is in a state called 'super-contango'. It's an EXTREMELY rare phenomenon that could lead to a DOUBLING of the oil price by the end of the year.

You'll see why Australia is heading for a FOREVER COLLAPSE of cheap oil, with 25% less oil available to us within 6 years.

Most importantly...

I'll give you several targeted ways to play this anomaly - each sitting at different places on the risk scale - that have return potential ranging from 156% to an astounding 936%.

Listen, this 'super-contango' scenario essentially rolls the clock back to 2004 - when oil was under $40 a barrel and oil stocks that reached $120 last year were trading under $10.

For a limited time, you get a second swipe at oil profits.

As an investor, second chances like this don't come along often.

If you can get ahead of this story in the next three weeks - and get the right companies in your portfolio - you stand to make a lot of money.

Let me give you the oil story no one else is telling...

'Contango' and the Coming
Oil Super-Spike

At the time of writing this White Paper, a barrel of oil costs around $50.

For the first time in decades, Japan, Europe, and North America will all be in a recession at the same time. Massive oil stockpiles are building up. Norway's Frontline, one of the world's biggest tanker owners, says it's using 45 super-tankers as "floating storage". It now has over 80 million barrels at sea - the highest in a quarter century.

Oil has gone from the penthouse to the doghouse in a matter of months.

You'd be nuts to be bullish on crude right now, right?

No. You'd be nuts not to be.

Let me show you why...

First I'll explain ordinary 'contango'. It's a situation when oil futures contracts trade at a discount to contracts further out. Contango is pretty normal. After all, if you're not going to take delivery of the oil for another six months, you're paying the spot price plus the cost of storing it. So maybe a barrel of oil that costs you $38 today might cost you $41 for delivery six months from now.

But instead of $41, what if the price in six months is $53?

That's a huge difference - almost 40% higher than the spot price. It's extremely rare for the gap to get this big. It's called "super-contango", and it's the situation the oil market finds itself in RIGHT NOW.

Take a look at the graph below...

Futures Markets Predicting Higher Oil Prices

NYMEX oil futures for December 2009 are currently trading at $62.85. That's a fully 16% higher than the current oil price...

But look at a recent snap-shot from Bloomberg of the oil futures contract. It's actually the oil futures curve. It shows you what traders are betting a barrel of crude will sell for all the way out to December of 2017 (the far right hand point on the curve).

Traders are already figuring in a nearly 60% increase from today's prices by 2017. But you can see that the big jump traders are predicting comes much earlier in 2009 and 2010.

Here's the thing: I believe the futures contracts will trade at much higher levels than even traders are admitting. In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Richard Jones, the deputy director of the International Energy Agency, said the oil crash of 2008 may prevent around 8 million barrels of oil per day from ever reaching the market.

The oil price crash has caused so many projects to be deferred or cancelled that Jones says:

Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the downcycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases -- possibly as early as this year.

I'll explain more in a moment. But it's clear...

This is one hell of a profit opportunity for big financial players. You can see why the contango attracts speculators. Think about it. You accept the contract, buy a tanker-full of oil, store it for six months then deliver it. The profit you make is more than worth the storage costs and the interest on the loan you took to buy the oil.

Theoretically, 'super-contango' shouldn't really happen - at least for long periods. And since I've begun researching this strange development, the contango has indeed shrunk. The spot price is catching up with the futures price. And both are headed higher.

It's just too easy for big players to make money.

So what's really going on in the oil market?

There's a reason why at one point the December '09 crude oil contract was over 35% higher than the spot price for oil. It's the same reason that producers, big investors and even investment banks are hiring tankers, filling them up and parking them offshore.

Before I give you the reason - and three ways to profit from this situation - let me show you just how 'out-of-whack' the oil market really is right now...

Oil at Over 10% Contango

Take a look at the chart below again...

As you can see, we're currently in a state of 'super-contango' not seen this decade.

No wonder tanker rates are skyrocketing. Everyone with the capital to do so is filling up very large crude carriers with the 2 million gallons they're designed to carry - and then parking them offshore, waiting to deliver and collect a no-risk profit.

The super-contango has actually caused benchmark supertanker rental rates to rise more than 56% since Jan 1. The profits are so good even investment banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are getting in on the game.

So now we get to the main point of this White Paper...

Why are oil futures to much higher than the current spot price?

And how can you, as a private investor with limited capital, profit from it?

REVEALED: The Real
Danger of this Recession

Here's what I think is going on.

In-the-know traders are recognising that we've got a severe oil supply crunch hurtling towards us... and they're expecting oil to go a lot higher.

You see...

The Crude Delusion

Many people are deluding themselves into thinking the current recession is a permanent reprieve from high oil prices. It's not. Instead it's a temporary chance to buy oil investments at a handy discount.

Recession does not change the long-term problem facing the oil market - SCARCITY...

  • Global demand for oil will rise by 1% per year on average between now and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) World Energy Outlook 2008. The report says that, despite the current downturn, we will have to say goodbye to cheap oil again. The IEA expects prices will remain above $100 per barrel through 2015, rising to $200 in the next two decades.

  • The World Energy Council's 2007 Survey of Energy Resources concluded: "The world is rapidly approaching the end of the First Half of the Age of Oil... Given the central position of oil in the modern economy, the onset of decline threatens to be a time of great economic and geopolitical tension."

  • Some experts, like Normand Mousseau, a physics professor at Université de Montréal say the beginning of the end struck last summer. "This is why the prices jumped to $147 a barrel," he says. "As soon as the economy comes back, they will be right back up."

  • The International Energy Agency only sees world oil consumption for 2009 falling by 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 85.8 million. "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," they say

Low energy prices mean layoffs within the oil and gas industry, as well as in oil services, refining, pipelines and many related industries.

The oil industry worldwide is downsizing because of the low price of oil.

Think about it...

At US$150 a barrel, the oil producer's profits exceed their costs - so it's worthwhile for them to keep drilling the black stuff out of the ground, and refining it.

But what happens if the price of oil drops as it has recently, to under $50 a barrel? What does that do to an oil driller's business?

It decimates his profits.

His core product now sells for roughly A QUARTER of the price it did eight months ago.

And while that's good news for you at the pumps right now, it's devastating news for the oil industry. Because with 75% less revenue coming in, they need to balance their books - fast.

They can't borrow more to keep the drills drilling and the pumps pumping - credit has virtually dried up.

There's only one option open to them to stop the wheels completely falling off: cut costs - quickly.

Oil producers cut costs by turning off drilling rigs, cutting production and laying-off staff. In some cases, plants and refineries have to close.

And that's very bad news.

Because when economies recover - and they will - oil demand will be back with a vengeance. If you need any more convincing of this, see the box to the left.

But the real problem here - the one I'm certain is causing the 'super-contango' in crude prices - is SUPPLY.

As Goldman Sachs oil analyst Jeffrey Currie recently told a conference in Melbourne:

"Thirty dollar oil reflects the same imbalances that got us to $147 oil. The problems haven't gone away. We still believe the day of reckoning is to come."

Let me show you what he means...

The Great 2009 Oil
Industry Wipe-Out

Recession doesn't change the fact that 86% of the world's energy comes from oil.

What we need - URGENTLY - is MORE investment in finding and drilling for oil, not less!

Aging fields that are in depletion, particularly the giant oil fields, mean we're going to have to make up this production shortfall from somewhere.

Producers will be forced to drill deeper and in remote regions around the world.

But they aren't.

"This is not 1982-1983 all over again. The supply picture is radically different... the demand picture is radically different.

"The key difference is that today there are no large-scale next-generation projects that are going to save the world. Commodity demand is exponentially higher than it was."

- Goldman Sachs oil analyst Jeffrey Currie

Because $30 to $60 oil is bringing the industry to a standstill... new projects are being delayed companies are slashing exploration budgets. The ones working on difficult and marginal resources - with the highest costs - simply get priced out. They shut down rigs, cut down staff and cut back on their expansion plans.

Production of cheap, abundant fossil fuels is peaking and will soon be withering away.

Yet petrol for your car has almost never been inflation-adjusted cheaper!

That's a terrible combination. Because due to low prices:

  • Schlumberger and Halliburton, the world's No. 1 and No. 2 oilfield service companies, said they are both taking a hatchet to their workforce. Schlumberger has already axed 1,000 jobs, while Halliburton is axing an "undisclosed" number of positions.
  • Smaller drillers and exploration companies are downsizing massively or postponing projects. Nabors Drilling fired 150 workers ... Canadian oil and gas supplies company Tenaris Prudential has just temporarily laid off 400 workers... French oil company Total's CEO recently warned that at even $60 oil, "a lot of new projects would be delayed."
  • Greg Kuipers of Calgary mining junior Black Sea Oil and Gas says he's already laid off 20% of his work-force, and cut the pay of the rest. He reckons 200 other Canadian mining juniors are in the same position. "A good portion of engineers in downtown Calgary are going to be worried about their jobs. I would say about 20 per cent of them will probably get laid off," he said.
  • Russia's largest oil company Rosneft has postponed the opening of its giant Vankor oil field. That's 135 million tons of oil that won't reach the market.
  • The plummeting oil price is expected to cost oil and gas state Texas a massive 110,000 jobs in the next six months alone.

Look. These are NOT your regular layoffs that come in a recession.

These aren't lawyers, investment bankers... car salesmen or luxury luggage designers... builders or video game designers...

A View from the Peak

  • The Australia Association of Peak Oil: "Recent economic modelling on the impact of a near-term peak in world oil production indicated fuel prices as high as $8 per litre by 2018, a reduction in passenger and freight travel of up to 40 per cent and a decline in GDP of at least three per cent..."
  • Matt Simmons, geologist and renowned oil-field investment banker: "If we ignore peak oil; worse, if we laugh about it, continue consuming, we will have a massive shortage.
  • "Energy reality, if you take off rose-colored glasses and just study data, is that crude oil in most non-OPEC countries is now in decline, and in too many countries in steep decline. Virtually all of the OPEC producers, with the exception of Angola, are really struggling to keep their production flat."
  • Famed energy researcher and Professor in the Centre for Environment and Business in the Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Thomas Homer-Dixon has warned: "energy is society's critical master resource: when it's scarce and costly, everything we try to do, including growing our own food, obtaining other resources like fresh water, transmitting and processing information, and defending ourselves, becomes far harder."

These are highly-trained people whose sole aim is to keep the life-blood of the global economy flowing.

The low price of oil at the moment, brought on as a result of the global downturn, has bought us a little time - nothing more. It's just the eye of the hurricane passing over.

Soon the storm will rage again - even harder.

We're going to feel the effects of this sudden price rise later in 2009. And it won't be a temporary 'blip'.

If what I'm reading in the markets is correct, petrol prices won't JUST stop at $1.50 a litre. They'll keep rising and rising.

Now I know what you might be thinking...

"Won't the oil just start pumping again as soon as the prices rises?"

Maybe this isn't such a big deal.

When demand picks up, the oil price will rise, investment in oil exploration will be rejuvenated and all will be well, right? (Besides, the oil barons have made a killing from expensive crude. It's about time they got their comeuppance!)

If you believe that, you're ignoring two important facts...

First, this is not the 1970s. We're now in a world where all the great oil field discoveries that we know about were made over 35 years ago. The great oil fields of Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and a host of other crucial fields are all in decline.

We need the oil we know about OUT of the ground... and we need the oil we don't know about discovered.

And we need this to be happening NOW!

'Peak Oil' (see left) is only being masked by the current economic downturn. But it's still there. Like an ugly monster under the bed, waiting to gobble you up when you fall asleep.

Reduced investment in the oil industry won't postpone it... it will bring it here FASTER and HARDER!

The second point is even more crucial.

You can't just push a button and have the oil start flowing again when demand picks up.

The industry just doesn't work that way.

It's takes months to bring mothballed rigs back into service. And it takes money - money many drilling and exploration companies just won't have at the end of this recession.

It takes around three years for delivery of brand new deep sea oil rigs to be built and delivered, according to the Gulf Times.

And since it takes, on average, six years from first discovery for a mega field to start producing oil, any new project approved today would be unlikely to come on stream before the middle of next decade.

Can you see the problem here?

(Many traders do... that's why they're stockpiling oil on-the-cheap.)

Even Nobuo Tanaka, the International Energy Agency's executive director, came out in February with a public warning of a "supply crunch" in 2010.

"Currently the demand is very low due to the very bad economic situation," Mr Tanaka said. "But when the economy starts growing, recovery comes again in 2010 and then onward, we may have another serious supply crunch if capital investment is not coming."

How serious? Try...

25% LESS OIL IN 6 SIX YEARS!

Take a look at the first chart below...

Historically, the countries that produced a lot of oil - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Mexico, Venezuela - haven't used much of the stuff.

That's changing - fast.

"Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable."

-- Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA

As these countries have moved into the 21st century, so have their oil needs.

The chart above shows that net oil exports from the world's top 20 exporting countries have been trending downwards since mid-2005.

Think about it...

These producers have seen the writing on the wall. They figure in a world of peak oil, it may just be a good idea to hold onto your reserves instead of sell them.

And get this...

A recent independent study produced a 'middle case' scenario in - one in which exports from the world's top five oil exporters decline by 6.2% by 2015.

That's a decline equivalentto one quarter of the world's internationally traded oil over the next sixyears.

This analysis is reinforced by Jeff Rubin from CIBC World Markets, who recently estimated that world exports will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day over the next three years.

So what does that mean for YOU?

That brings me to the next chart I want to show you...

The Forever Collapse Of
CHEAP Australian Oil

Another chart... this one showing Australia's growing dependence on foreign oil.

<== How will we make up the shortfall when oil becomes even scarcer?

 

By now you realise this is a truly global problem.

Far more countries will be hit by the coming oil price rebound than by the credit crisis.

But let me bring this close to home for you...

Australia's domestic oil production peaked back in 2000. It will never recover. We are already 50% dependent on oil imports. As you can see in the chart above, we're going to be TWO-THIRDS dependent by 2015.

Just to make this clear for you...

In the next six years, there will be 25% LESS oil on the export market... but Australia's dependence on foreign oil will INCREASE from half to two-thirds!

So in an environment where people are clinging onto every drop of crude, Australia will need to shop around for more of the stuff! It will be competing for oil with China, Japan, the U.S. and others.

We're facing another completely foreseeable catastrophe. A "swift and violent" oil price spike, according to Goldman Sachs, that will be the killer blow to many global economies, companies and investors.

This is something YOU desperately need to get to grips with right now - before it's too late. Why?

The oil trade is BACK ON. Traders know it. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Royal Dutch Shell are all storing loads of oil in tankers in the Gulf of Mexico. They know it.

Pretty soon, the supply crunch will begin... sending oil back to triple figures not in years... but months or even weeks.

Not just another rally above $100. But a permanent, sustained new crisis that will make the petro-busts of the 1970s... even the last two years... look small in comparison.

As CNN.com put it recently:

"...the spike in oil prices earlier this year wasn't a temporary market anomaly... the recent retreat in prices is just a misleading calm before a calamitous storm... we're headed toward $500-a-barrel oil..."

And you know what?

It's Time to Prepare

Dan Denning founded and edited a financial newsletter on small-capitalization stocks in 1998 and edited Strategic Investment, from 2000 to 2006. His macro-economic and stock-market forecasts in were read by over 45,000 subscribers in 70 countries. His analysis for The Daily Reckoning is read by more than 500,000 people regularly. Dan is also a regular columnist for Money Week, a London financial weekly.

In 2002 he spent a year commenting on global markets from Paris before relocating to the London offices of Fleet Street Publications. In 2004 Dan spent six months travelling the globe in search of investment opportunities. This trek resulted in the New York Times bestseller, The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons).

Dan's latest project has him currently residing in Australia where he's the managing editor of Diggers and Drillers. The Daily Reckoning Australia is a local version of The Daily Reckoning which now reaches over 50,000 Australian investors seeking a fresh perspective on Australian markets.

Hey, I realise there's no shortage of bad news at the moment. You're probably sick to death of doom and gloom.

But that's the problem: everyone's focusing on the credit crisis... and meanwhile an even bigger calamity is creeping up behind them!

Thing is... right now, with oil prices dragging well below the trend line... the looming supply problem is no longer an issue. Even as it quietly becomes more urgent.

As an investor, right there is your opportunity.

If you're savvy enough to see this now - when most investors are panicked and energy stocks are dirt cheap - you stand to make a great deal of money from when the market wakes up and sees what's coming.

I've researched several ways for you to play the coming oil 'rebound' for considerable potential gains. How considerable? You'll see in a second. <== Potentially 156% to 3,786%

First, I ought to introduce myself.

My name is Dan Denning. I'm Head Analyst at an Australian investment advisory called Diggers and Drillers.

I've been in the strategic investment game a while now. I thought I'd seen everything.

But while I saw it coming, I really had no idea this financial crisis would get this bad.

We all know by now that a good chunk of the world's banks are as good as bust. And like it or not, the governments of the world have decided to step in and 'save' them, and the rest of us, with "stimulus" packages and bailouts.

It's hard enough to predict the markets at the best of times. But with governments launching new harebrained schemes every other day, and more nasty surprises potentially on the horizon, it's tougher than ever.

But there's one thing you can know with absolute certainty.

And that's that the price of oil - eventually - MUST resume its upward trend.

The supply-crunch spike in oil prices should come in the last half of 2009.

And after that, I expect energy to be a very lucrative sector as the race for the world's remaining oil accelerates.

This financial crisis will end.

And when it does, demand for petroleum will resume, especially in places like China and India. The smart investors are positioning their portfolios now - while energy stocks are the cheapest they've been in years - to profit from it...

Turn Your Clock Back to 2004

"You have made me a better investor and a wiser person."

"You folk bring such economic wisdom to the table. You challenge us and our preconceived ideas on many levels...

"I have profited from your advice and ideas. More importantly I have avoided losses by liquidating every possible asset back Nov 07. You have made me a better investor and a wiser person. So a really big thank you."

-- Paul F, on Dan's commentary in the Daily Reckoning e-letter

Here's how I look at it...

You and I, as investors, are being given a chance to jump in a time machine travel back five years to early 2004.

Back then a barrel of oil cost roughly what it does today, just over US$30.

But crucially, you could buy oil stocks on the cheap. You could have bought Big Oil companies like ConocoPhillips at $37, ExxonMobil at $42.90, Total SA at $43 and Santos, Australia's biggest oil company, for just $19.

These are big, blue chip stocks, remember.

And yet, if you'd sold at their recent peaks you would have made 156%, 123%, 111% and 342%!

Sure, these stocks well down again.

Ridiculously oversold is probably a better term.

But that gives YOU a unique second chance to get back in on the ground floor.

Think about it. NOTHING has changed within the oil story...

Oil is still the world's most important primary energy source. It provides more than one third of all energy. 95% per cent of all transport is fuelled by petroleum.

All petrochemicals are produced from oil. 95% of what you buy in shops used oil to get there. 99% of the food you eat involves the use of oil and/or gas for fertiliser, pesticides, ploughing, cultivation, processing and transport.

Robert Hirsch estimates that a 1% decline in world oil supply would roughly equate to a 1% decline in world GDP, in order of magnitude.

A crisis in the credit markets doesn't change reality. It just distorts it.

Just last month Petroleumworld.com declared: "Peak oil will thus occur soon after the current economic crisis is over and world demand, particularly in China and India, takes off again."

The only thing that's changed is many oil and energy stocks are - temporarily - going at bargain basement prices again.

And it's not just Big Oil you should be targeting...

Heal Your Wounded Portfolio
With Returns Like 376%,
404% and 936%

Those who read the oil story correctly as early as 2004 - and bought into good,solid mid-tier oil and energy companies - have done pretty well for themselves.

Take Comstock Resources...

361 % in just four years!

This mid-level explorer could be bought for just $19 a share in 2004. As the oil price rose - and peak oil started to enter mainstream thinking - its business took off. The stock peaked at $90.61... a 361% gain in a little over four years.

Today you can buy a Comstock share for under $40.

Or Clayton Williams Energy...

This stock shot up to $121, but now trades around $40

In 2004 stock in this mid-tier driller would have put you back $24. At its peak it traded at $121 - a 404% gain. Today the share trades for just over $30.

And Denbury Resources

HOW ABOUT 936% IN FIVE YEARS?

Denbury is a great company. It's developed a unique ability to capture Carbon Dioxide (CO2) while increasing oil production from previously depleted oil fields.

Back in 2004 you could buy into Denbury for $3.70. Last year it was selling for $42.

That's a 936% return on investment in four years.

Thanks to the recent mass sell-off - and the plummeting oil price - Denbury stock now sells for around $16.

Like everything else, it corrected with the global stock crash. But as the chart shows, the stock's begun climbing again. I believe this is directly related to the super contango formation in the oil futures market.

Here's the thing... when oil demand begins to grow again, and starts eclipsing supply, it's companies like Denbury that will profit... along with the investors who pick them up now on the cheap.

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets."

- Legendary investor, Peter Lynch

These kinds of gains are on the table for you again. Relatively safe, big oil plays that could return between 25% and 150% in the next 24 months. And then speculative, mid-scale explorers and supply companies where the sky is the limit.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying you should jump wholesale into the oil sector. A lot of companies have taken a mortal hit from this recession. Many won't make it out alive - even if, as I suspect, there is an oil price 'rebound' by the end of the year.

The way you make money here is put some serious thought into which oil and energy companies a) have the assets, projects and cash in the bank to survive the downturn (you can call these companies "cash-boxes") and b) will be first in line to benefit most from a "swift" and "violent" oil price spike, starting the last half of 2009.

Correctly identify these companies - and own their stock NOW - and you WILL make a fortune.

I've been conducting this very research since the start of the year. And, with your permission, I'd like to share the results with you - FREE OF CHARGE...

The Coming Oil Supply Crunch
Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns

Listen, as investors, we're floating in the middle of an uncharted ocean. No one on earth has practical experience dealing with a market beset by simultaneous banking failure, credit contraction, property market weakness and widespread international deleveraging.

But this crisis is ALSO handing out money-making opportunities you may never see again in your lifetime. (Heck, maybe even your kids mightn't.)

But they'll only go to people who think AHEAD of the herd... and make the right decisions when most investors are still fearful.

The glaringly obvious trade here is a play on mid-tier oil and exploration companies - many of which are trading at half last year's price or less. In my view, it's not just the trade of 2009. It will be the trade of the next decade.

Of course, it's still risky. Some of the stocks I've picked are mid-tier companies. They've had a rough time of late. If you don't have capital to spare, you'll want to give this a miss.

And there's the fact I might be wrong. (Heck, part of me hopes I'm wrong.) But I have seen nothing yet to convince me otherwise.

Even if you're only half-convinced yourself, I urge you to get all my latest recommendations and research in a new report called "The Coming Oil Supply Crunch: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns". Inside you'll get my very best ideas on how to turn the coming crisis to your financial advantage.

You can download it - instantly and for free - by clicking here. All I stress is that you do it quickly. Whether this recession abates in 2009 or not, I expect a 'rebound' in oil prices to come in the second half of the year. Obviously this is not an exact science. But in a moment I'll show you why this date is important... and why you should own a small set of energy plays as far in advance of this date as possible.

First though, let me give you a glimpse inside your free report...

This Eighty Nine Cents Oil
and Gas "Cash Box" is Really Worth AT LEAST $3.50 - Even
at Current Oil Prices!

This middle-rung Australian explorer is so cheap it's unbelievable.

The stock is down over 50% from this time last year. That's despite a healthy cash balance of $53 million.

I can't stress enough how important cash reserves are right now. I won't even LOOK at companies that have an empty wallet.

Many companies sitting on high quality projects either do not have money to operate, or are struggling to ward off predators looking for a bargain.

This company has more than enough to survive, even if the situation deteriorates before the 'rebound' in oil prices begins. It also has NO corporate debt. Very handy at the moment.

But that's just the first reason to like this oversold explorer.

The company has just reported to the market it has drilled down to a depth of 3,318m on a new well that was opened on January 19th.

It's found up to 40 Bcf of gas, and will complete the well as a cash-generating gas producer. The fact that it's continuing to explore, drill and acquire new resources in such a challenging environment speaks volumes. This company will emerge ahead of the pack when oil prices recover.

Take a look at this and you'll see just how criminally undervalued this stock is...


Source: Tap Oil

This stock trades around $0.89 at the time of writing. As you can see, 79 cents of that is made up just by the cash it has in the bank!

The company's diversified production portfolio, current oil production, gas production and quality exploration portfolio are not reflected in current share price

This, to me, is a 'no-brainer' BUY. You'll get full details on this company in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. Just click here to download the free report right now.

"ARE THEY CRAZY?"
Australian Oil Explorer
Spends Up Large While Competitors Hibernate

If you're sold on oil prices going up long-term, here's another URGENT discount buy to add to your portfolio today.

In fact it's probably one of the most promising oil plays in the world right now... and it trades right here on the ASX. Let me show you why I'm recommending this stock to friends and family as well as my readers...

First and foremost, this company is a "mega cash box". While many oil outfits have squandered their revenue from triple-digit oil prices, these guys have been prudent. They've got $383 million in net cash reserves in the bank.

As I've said, that's your lifeline during a credit crisis. It means you don't have to go cap in hand to banks - most of which are refusing to lend anyway - in order to keep your business going.

That's the first reason you should own this stock.

Second: These guys are not only maintaining current exploration plans... they're EXPANDING. They've got the big picture in mind. BP boss Tony Hayward said recently: "When the economy picks up, demand will pick up very fast and we will quickly run into supply problems."

This Australian explorer knows this. So it's doing its damndest to make sure it's first in line to fill the supply gap when it arises.

Just last month the company announced plans to EXPAND their drilling operations in New Zealand from 120,000 bpd to 180,000bpd.

The Oil and Gas Journal reported on January 30th:

"The upgrade will enable more oil to be recovered at a faster rate from the currently producing reservoirs and also provide the flexibility to tie-in any future nearby discoveries."

It goes on to say the explorer:

"...is now confident it can extract the remaining reserves without the extra development well. There are five attractive prospects near the three producing reservoirs which in total could contain another 50 million bbl of oil."

Look, I've done my homework on this. And you're just not seeing announcements like these from oil companies these days.

What's more, despite the global downturn, this company is making enough revenue to fund development without digging into its savings. It made $140 million in the final quarter of 2008, despite the sinking oil price.

And there's one more great reason to own this company now...

On January 30 It Handed
Investors $52 Million

"Remarkable. True.
Hard-hitting."

Through his Diggers & Drillers newsletter and commentary in the Daily Reckoning, Dan Denning has a loyal following of 'think-outside-the-box' investors. Here are some recent words from some of them...

"Dan, this is one of the most remarkable, truest and hard hitting articles I have ever read. Your readers should listen, certainly I am. Thank you for the privilege of being one of your readers."
-- Luigi Soprani

"Love your website, and have started cc-ing my friends and associates. What is scary is that your views make so much sense but are so different from the hype coming out of the mainstream media."
-- Mark

"...a real change to the hype and deceit common in other economic news and speculation. Your articles used to be almost a solitary source of speculation about our current economic bubble and it seems that now what you have been saying all along is pretty spot on."
-- Pete

"Dan, Just writing to let you know I really appreciate your views - always makes me think about something that I hadn't really appreciated. Thanks for the good work!"
-- Paul

"Dan, I find your mixing data and literary economics as an interesting way of explaining what are very complex issues... currently you are the only decent site on the net offering insights like yours... there are plenty of places that other goldfish brain investors can find "BUY!" or "SELL!" instructions. Keep up the good work."
-- Edward Martin

Income from your investments is crucial during recession.

Investment legend and author of Stocks for the Long Run, Professor Jeremy Siegel, calls dividend-paying stocks "bear market protectors."

On January 30, for the first time ever, this company became a dividend payer - announcing a 10 cent per share special dividend amounting to a massive $52 million.

That takes some chutzpah at a time when revenues are down, oil prices are low and cash is scare.

To me it shows two things: 1) this is a company that respects its shareholders and 2) it's confident they can ride out the storm and start making a killing at the end of it.

With a healthy bank balance, there's every chance they might issue another dividend at the end of the year. Especially if the stock price itself stays depressed.

But you know what? I don't think it will.

The stock now sits around $2.51. That's about $2 less than it was six months ago. But it's recovered from its low of $1.75.

I believe it's a matter of weeks, maybe DAYS before investors who sold out realise their folly and buy back in... and other bargain hunters start buying as well.

$2.51 is a flat-out bargain. I believe you'll see the share price at $5 or more by the end of the year - even if the oil price hasn't recovered. After oil prices recover - and they MUST - you could see this company trading at $8 to $12 in as little as 12 months.

You'll get my full research on this company - future projects, financials, target price and more - in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch.

You'll also find out how to...


STOP PRESS! Besieged Aussie
Oil Engineers Land Dream Recession Contract

The credit crunch, the global recession, and the oil price crash have SAVAGED this oil and gas service provider. Its stock would have cost you over $40 in 2007. Now you can pick it up for under $20.

Of course, just because something is cheap doesn't necessarily make it a good buy.

What DOES - especially in recession - is good management, a strong balance sheet outstanding revenue potential. This company has all three.

In fact it finds itself involved in one of the largest natural gas projects in the world. Denali - the Alaskan pipeline LLC formed by British Petroleum and ConocoPhillips - has engaged this Australian company "to design and evaluate the North Slope treatment plant that would be needed to process natural gas being fed into the planned natural gas pipeline."

This deal was announced mid-February.

The contract covers initial design work, including technical studies, cost estimation, schedule development and other services for a pipeline that would deliver 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily from Alaska's North Slope to North American markets.

That's 1,700 miles of pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to an existing pipeline hub in Alberta, Canada. Past estimates have put the project cost at above $30 billion.

Look, this is a job many oil engineering CEOs would gladly give their right arm for right now. It's an excellent cash-generator, even if the oil price stays low longer than expected.

And that's what you're looking for... companies that can weather the storm and be best positioned to take advantage when the 'rebound' begins.

You can get my full research on this, and several other creaming bargain oil plays, in The Coming Oil Supply Crunch.

Of course, you're probably wondering why I'm giving invaluable research like this to you free of charge.

Well, with your permission I'd like to send you something else for free as well: a trial subscription to my newsletter, Diggers and Drillers.

When I say "trial", I mean it. I wouldn't ask anyone to commit to anything in this environment without giving it a good test-run.

If you don't like my analysis, we can part ways.

And you can keep my just-published Profit Plan - The Coming Oil Supply Crunch: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns - with my confidence.

However, I'm willing to bet you'll find Diggers and Drillers an invaluable ally in the trying months ahead. Here's why...

How to Make Money on the Markets: 2009 to 2012

I get a lot of readers emailing me a bunch of questions.

By far the most common one is this: "Dan, what the #%$* is going to happen to my wealth, investments and retirement plans over the next three years."

Here's the state of play as I see. (It's not pretty, but it's reality. And I intend to help my readers deal with it in the best way possible.)

Your wealth is now entering an environment where all paper currencies are going to start losing value to REAL, TANGIBLE things. This devaluation will be part of a deliberate strategy by national governments to prevent more asset deflation and severe economic recession.

In other words: they're going to try and PRINT CASH to get out of this mess.

This, obviously, won't work.

The coming devaluation of paper money versus tangible goods will cause widespread economic and social problems all over the world. That's going to happen all this year, and maybe even next.

The solution? Own tangible assets. And own shares of copmanies that own tangible assets.

If you accept this trial invitation today, I will go about helping you acquire and accumulate the best, most oversold tangible asset investments investments I can find on the market, both locally and abroad.

I'm talking about gold... steel... oil and energy... agriculture... uranium...

The kind of stuff that retains value - even if paper currencies burn.

The aims of Diggers and Drillers are twofold...

  1. To give you the best possible chance of seeing positive returns on your portfolio WHILE a recession or even depression is still in place. And,
  1. To build, at a discount, a rock-solid portfolio of investments that will take off like a rocket after the credit bubble has deflated.<== Starting with your free oil report

Capital preservation and then profits.

That's the Diggers and Drillers manifesto for 2009.

I can't promise you we always get it right with our share tips and market calls. This market, frankly, is the most bloody treacherous I think we'll ever see in our lifetimes.

But I can promise you this...

You Will Not Find Better
Wealth-Consolidation
Investment Research
in Australia in 2009

Our work is not compromised by any conflicts of interest or other agendas.

We don't produce hype-up fear stories just because they sell newspapers. But, on the flip-side, we don't shy away from telling it how it really is.

We publish our best investment ideas and we don't get paid a cent by any company to promote it.And there's never been a better time for you to get hold of this kind of investment intelligence.

But don't take my word for it. Try my analysis out for yourself, starting with your free report, The Coming Oil Super Supply Crunch.

Listen... even if you decide not to stay on as a subscriber to my newsletter, I want you to have this free resource.

The bottom line is that the floor just fell out from under the financial machinery of the energy and resource industries. It all happened very fast, in a matter of weeks late last year.

Oil prices have dropped 70% in 6 months. That's NOT a rational price movement.

This is wreaking havoc with current oil production. Thousands of small operators around the world are closing. Thousands of wells are being plugged up. High-cost marginal projects - from deep-water exploration in the Gulf of Mexico to big tar sands projects in Alberta - are cutting back or shutting down. Oil below $50 just won't support certain kinds of investment.

When the world needs that output in a few years, it won't be there.

So yes, the current oil pricing is signalling that petroleum is in surplus. But it's a stone's throw away - perhaps even as little as six months - back to the world of scarcity.

In a climate where genuine profit opportunities are as rare as hen's teeth, this is an opening all sane investors should be jumping into.

To claim this complimentary report now, JUST CLICK HERE.

Here's what else you'll receive with your Diggers and Drillers trial subscription...

Your Trial D&D
Subscription Package

"Your readers should
listen. Certainly, I am!"

More praise for Dan Denning:

"Your readers should listen, certainly I am. This time we may witness the "perfect storm" when all bubbles pop at once. Over many years I have seen liquidity come and go several times: it builds up slowly and then decreases and collapses suddenly, leaving a trail of destruction and misery which affects almost everybody. Thank you for the privilege of being one of your readers."
-- Luigi Soprani

"Your Articles have positively driven my investment decisions in the Aus. share market. Thank you for sharing your knowledge of the world markets, your articles make for far better reading & understanding then the AFR..."
-- David Brand

"It's not easy to make someone, smile, grin, chuckle, laugh when reading about subprime, CDO's, the value of the USD etc. But you do!"
-- Liz Barrett

"I am semi new to investing and find your articles totally fascinating. I really like the approach you take to markets/advisors (fairly cynical), it offers a real change to the hype and deceit common in other purveyors of economic news and speculation. I also like the reality check you tend to give. Your articles used to be almost a solitary source of speculation about our current economic bubble (apart from your sources, of course), and it seems that now what you have been saying all along is pretty spot on."
-- Pete

"I just want to thank you in advance as you may have saved/made me a lot of money. I love reading The Daily Reckoning, if nothing else it is a good read, but obviously enough of what I read prompted me to put my entire Super in the cash option on 1/7/07.

"We will see how it pans out but I agree that the worst is still to come and I'm sleeping FINE. If I put it back into shares now I will be in front but if I'm patient this could really work for me. Thanks again, I am truly grateful..."
-- Colin Raabe

Starting the minute you click, you'll be sent:

  • 12 monthly issues of the Diggers and Drillers newsletter: Packed with fresh, thoroughly-researched opportunities, market analysis and in-depth forecasting. You won't find a better resource stock advisory in Australia... or anywhere for that matter.

  • The stocks I will recommend have intrinsic value... unlike financial operations, as you've seen recently. The global credit squeeze isn't going to melt away. Diggers and Drillers is one of the best tools to help you play it for profits.
  • Peak Soil: The 2 Aussie Stocks Racking Up Millions from an Agricultural Shortage: Our strategy for the Aussie agriculture sector is simple. It's very long-term, and perfect for an investor's timeframe. But really, it has less to do with Australia's agricultural industry than it does with China's and India's. These two stocks are trading at an awesome discount. And that, in my opinion, is insane. If you're looking for great returns three to five years from now, you'll want this information.
  • Gold Mania 2009: As recently as the late 1970s gold soared when government deficits exploded and the world economy went into recession. Gold becomes a “safe haven” for investors seeking protection from falling stock prices. In this report, you'll find the case for gold in pictures AND words, including Australia's Five Cheapest Gold Stocks for 2009 and why they should benefit from the coming gold mania.
  • How to Buy and Sell Shares For
    Profit:
    This concise guide answers the most common questions beginner investors have about buying and selling shares. You'll learn how to place orders with your broker... which type of brokerage is right for you... the importance of using limit orders... how much to invest... three ways to reduce tax on your profits, and much more. Even experienced traders will find something of interest in this valuable resource.

You don't pay for any of these three FREE reports either. They are yours, on-the house. And there's more...

Every week, I'd also like to send you a FREE 'state-of-play' investment update, straight to your e-mail account. This will bring you hot-off-the-press news... as well as developments relating to your current holdings. Plus other hot opportunities I have percolating on the stove.

And remember, this is a 'no-obligation' invitation...

Take the Next 60 Days
to Test My Analysis

Follow my predictions for the market. See how my analysis matches with events that are unfolding. Track my tips for the next 60 days.

If you don't like what you see... for any reason... then contact me for a full, unconditional refund.

And you can keep all the reports I send you with my compliments.

That's a pretty fair deal, right?

With that in mind, what will you pay if you decide to stick around?

What is this One-of-a-Kind Investment Intelligence
Worth to You?

I can tell you now there are few high-profile analysts in Melbourne and Sydney covering smaller Aussie energy stocks... let alone guys on Wall Street.

I will have paid for my D&Dsubscription for
another 75+ years!"
-- Kieran

I certainly don't know many investment newsletters or tipsters - here or abroad - who've devoted the last two years entirely to the Australian resources story.

Believe me, I've looked around... and I'm confident in saying that you simply cannot buy anywhere else what I'm offering you today.

If you could get this calibre of research from other publishers (and I don't believe you can) it would cost
you anywhere from $700 to $1,500 dollars.

But why pay that?

You'll be pleased to hear an annual subscription to Diggers and Drillers will put you back just $134 for the first year (55% of the publishers price of $298).

Listen, I can say with complete confidence you won't get this level of investment intelligence for anywhere near this price anywhere else in Australia.

As reader Don L emailed to us recently:

"The services you provide - Daily Reckoning (plus Money Morning) together with Diggers & Drillers and Small Caps - provide by far the best means for keeping up with things that I know... I will be continuing my subscription on an annual basis."

Frankly, if $134 seems like a hefty sum, these investment opportunities probably aren't your cup of tea.

If you want in, then you need to move fast...

How Will YOUR Portfolio Look
When the Credit Crisis is Over?

That, really, is the $64,000 question.

The world's third great industrialisation in China and India will outlast this financial crisis.

And right now there are safe, undervalued assets screaming out for buyers.

The very best profits will go to investors who use their heads... will others are LOSING theirs.

Click on the link below. I'll send you all the investment intelligence outlined in this report.

Read it. Paper trade if you're cautious. Then wait.

If you ultimately decide I've missed the mark, you lose nothing and get your money back. While keeping every last bonus or issue we've already sent.

I hope that sounds fair to you.

More importantly, I hope it sounds like something you'll feel ready to act on right away.

The best bargains are to be had NOW. And I'm not so sure I can promise you that in 12 or even six months time.

Here's all you need to do...

Click here and fill your details in on the No-Risk Secure Online Application.

I hope to hear from you soon...

Sincerely,

Dan Denning
Diggers & Drillers

PS: I can't say for sure when a 'rebound' in oil prices will occur. But I can say this: it will happen QUICKLY. Perhaps well before this recession is over.

Markets are forward-looking beasts. As soon as people start realising the oil we're going to need two or three years after the credit crisis ends just won't be there... well, who knows what will happen.

But you can bet it WON'T be cheaper oil.

To find out my best plays on profiting this now - while stocks are oversold - go here: The Coming Oil Supply Crunch: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns.

PPS: As I mentioned earlier, the Australia Association of Peak Oil says it's a case of 'when' not 'if' petrol prices here soar as high as $8 a litre.

Could you maintain your current lifestyle if it cost you $350 every fill up?

Even if you could... do you think small businesses, farmers, truck drivers, construction workers and airlines could cope with the cost?

What about people who live in outer suburbs poorly serviced by public transport? What will they do when it costs more than a day's wages just to get to work?

As Winston Churchill said about another approaching crisis - the rise of the Third Reich in 1936: "The era of procrastination is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."

Same deal here: Once this recession is over - and it will end eventually - demand for oil will start soaring again... and that's where the real problems will begin. You have a chance to prepare - at a discount - for the "period of consequences" before it begins. Just click here:

The Coming Oil Supply Crunch:
Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns




If you have any questions about your Diggers & Drillers subscription, or, would like to change your email settings, please contact Port Phillip Publishing Customer Services at CS@PortPhillipPublishing.com.au or phone us at 1300 66 74 81 Monday-Friday 08:30 - 16:00.

Copyright - 2008 Port Phillip Publishing Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved

To view our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement visit this link.

Calculating Your Future Returns

It's important to remember that investing in shares can lose you some or all of your money. The potential gains in this letter are based on investing in Australian dollars on the Australian Stock Exchange unless otherwise indicated and do not include taxes, brokerage commissions, or associated fees. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your particular situation. Also, while useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. The value of any investment, and the income derived from it, can go down as well as up. Investments in foreign companies involve risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Specifically, changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause a divergence between your nominal gain and your currency-converted gain, making it possible to lose money once your total return is adjusted for currency. For any investment, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you've invested. If in doubt of the suitability of an investment please seek independent financial advice.

Port Phillip Publishing Pty Ltd holds an Australian Financial Services License: 323 988.

ACN: 117 765 009 ABN: 33 117 765 009