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Confidential report issues early warning of 12 million How Crude Oil's Three targeted ways to play the coming
Dear Investor, If you're fed up with bad news and can't stomach more worry, stop reading right now and go watch Neighbours. I wish I'd done that on March 27, when I managed to get hold of a restricted report put together by three of the most influential oil insiders on the planet. This is intelligence reserved for Governments, Big Oil and financial institutions willing to pay for it. Usually it would never fall into the hands of private investors like you and me. Here's what it shows... The oil price crash in recent months VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES a second massive spike in crude prices, starting this year. I know, I know. Oil is below $70 a barrel. Some of the world's biggest economies are going bust. A cataclysmic, worldwide energy crisis is probably the last thing on your mind right now. But hear me out. Because, if you move on the three oversold stock recommendations outlined further down... you could capture returns ranging from 377% to, 1035%... Trust me: you simply won't get a better swipe at three-figure profits in this terrible market. Let me give you the oil story no one else is telling... The "Long Aftershock": Without Doubt The wind-swept, rain-soaked North Sea was never the easiest place to make a living. But at least there was a living to be made.
Not anymore. The number of new North Sea wells drilled in the first quarter of 2009 fell 78%, year-on-year. Because oil spent 8 months under $60 a barrel. Oil supplies the world was counting on, have disappeared from the markets.
Tighter lending conditions and a trough in oil prices are grinding the global oil industry to a shuddering halt. "So what?" you might ask. "These guys made a killing at our expense when oil was over $100. $45 oil is fine by me! It's about time Big Oil felt some pain." Don't be fooled... The Biggest Oil Supply Crunch in Modern History
Thanks to sub-$60 oil, it's been disaster for the oil industry. But look. These are NOT your regular layoffs that come in a recession. These aren't lawyers, investment bankers... car salesmen or luxury luggage designers... builders or video game designers... These are highly-trained people whose sole aim is to keep the blood of the global economy flowing. See, for the past decade oil market analysts have been worried about "demand destruction" - the point where high prices prompt consumers to irreversibly change consumption patterns by driving less or buying fuel-efficient cars. But that was a red herring. In light of this massive global recession, oil "supply destruction" is the real monster in the closet. This is where the failure of oil companies to invest in new production inevitably leads to the next crippling oil shock that causes MUCH higher prices... and quickly, practically in the blink of an eye. But there's an upside... if you're a private investor who can think ahead of the pack... The 'Long Aftershock' that Means the PERMANENT Look, I usually shy away from making specific predictions. Forecasting the markets can make a fool of even the most seasoned investor. But here I'll make an exception... Whether there's economic recovery soon or not, the damage to global oil supplies is done... and it's going to create triple-digit oil prices, maybe even by the end of 2009. From there, oil could easily trade in the $140 to $160 per barrel range in 2010 and 2011. That's at least 240% higher than the current price. (It's also going to create triple-digit gains for far-sighted investors, as you'll see in a moment.) The confidential research paper I was telling you about calls this impending spike the 'Long Aftershock'. The report was released - at high cost and to a select group of oil industry insiders - by a group called the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).
CERA is a leading advisor to international energy companies, governments, financial institutions, and technology providers. Their critical analysis on energy markets, geopolitics and strategy are designed to create an "early warning system" for energy powerbrokers and investment houses. In short, when these guys make a call on the oil markets, you listen. Here's what the March 27th research paper told those in the upper echelons of energy, industry and investment...
You read right... Oil Production Growth Will HALVE in 5 Years!
CERA says that production will grow by just 7.6 million barrels per day over the next five years. That's down from the 14.5 million barrels per day increase it predicted last summer. According to the research group, as demand recovers throughout that span, production will struggle to keep up and a new oil bull market, similar to the one seen in 2008 will begin. Certain oil explorers and producers are going to do spectacularly well as the mad-scramble to make up the crude shortfall takes off. So will investors who by these depreciated stocks NOW. See, you can't just push a button and have the oil start flowing again when demand picks up. The industry just doesn't work that way. It's takes months to bring mothballed rigs back into service. And it takes money - money many drilling and exploration companies just won't have at the end of this recession. It takes around three years for delivery of brand new deep sea oil rigs to be built and delivered, according to the Gulf Times. And since it takes, on average, six years from first discovery for a mega field to start producing oil, any new project approved today would be unlikely to come on stream before the middle of next decade. Can you see the problem here? Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister does. He recently told a press conference: "I have often described unsustainably low oil prices as carrying the seeds of future spikes and volatility. In a low-price environment, the trend is often to focus on survival instead of expansion. If we place a low priority on preparing for the future, that lack of action can come back to haunt us through supply shortages and another round of high prices." As you've seen, that supply shortage will be partly due to the 52% cliff-dive in oil production growth. But, as it turns out, CERA only has half the story. I did a little more digging, and uncovered another worrying forecast...
Take a look at the chart below...
Historically, the countries that produced a lot of oil - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Mexico, Venezuela - haven't used much of the stuff. That's changing - fast. As these countries have moved into the 21st century, so have their oil needs.
The chart above shows that net oil exports from the world's top 20 exporting countries have been trending downwards since mid-2005. Think about it... These producers have seen the writing on the wall. They figure in a world where oil is getting harder to come by, it may just be a good idea to hold onto your reserves instead of sell them. And get this... A recent independent study produced a 'middle case' scenario in - one in which exports from the world's top five oil exporters decline by 6.2% by 2015. That's a decline equivalentto one quarter of the world's internationally traded oil over the next sixyears. This analysis is reinforced by Jeff Rubin from CIBC World Markets, who recently estimated that world exports will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day over the next three years. So what does that mean for YOU? That brings me to the next chart I want to show you... The FOREVER COLLAPSE of Cheap Australian Oil Another chart...
By now you realise this is a truly global problem. Far more countries will be hit by the "Long Aftershock" than by the credit crisis. But let me bring this close to home for you... Australia's domestic production peaked back in 2000. It will never recover. We are already 50% dependent on oil imports. As you can see in the chart above, we're going to be TWO-THIRDS dependent by 2015. Just to make this clear for you... In the next six years, there will be:
So in an environment where people are clinging onto every drop of crude, Australia will need to shop around for more of the stuff! We're facing another completely foreseeable catastrophe. A "swift and violent" oil price spike, according to Goldman Sachs, that will be the killer blow to many global economies, companies and investors. This is something YOU desperately need to get to grips with right now - before it's too late. Why? You have a SECOND SWIPE at triple-digit oil profits
Ever since crude hit a record high of $147 per barrel last July, owning oil stocks has been a little like bungee jumping - a long, terrifying plunge that you pray will be followed by a life-affirming bounce. Well, that bounce is about to happen. And if you act quickly, you stand to make a heck of a lot of money from it. Thanks to the credit crunch and ensuing recession, the oil clock has rolled back to 2004 - when oil was under $40 a barrel and oil stocks that reached $120 last year were trading under $10. For a limited time, you get a second swipe at oil profits. For the rest of this report, I'm going to share my best ideas on how to do this. As an investor, second chances like this don't come along often. Pretty soon, a 'Long Aftershock' will assert itself in the oil market... sending oil back to triple figures not in years... but months or even weeks. Not just another rally above $100. But a permanent, sustained new crisis that will make the petro-busts of the 1970s... even the last two years... look small in comparison. And you know what? It's Time to Prepare Hey, I realise there's no shortage of bad news at the moment. You're probably sick to the bad-teeth of doom and gloom. But that's the problem: everyone's focussing on the credit crisis... and meanwhile an even bigger calamity is creeping up behind them! Thing is... right now, with oil prices dragging well below the trend line... the looming supply problem is no longer an issue. Even as it quietly becomes more urgent. As an investor, right there is your opportunity. If you're savvy enough to see this now - when most investors are panicked and energy stocks are dirt cheap - you stand to make a great deal of money from when the market wakes up and sees what's coming. I've researched several ways for you to play the coming 'Long Aftershock' for considerable potential gains. How considerable? You'll see in a second. <== Potentially 377% to, 1035%.
First, I ought to introduce myself. My name is Dan Denning. I'm Head Analyst at an Australian investment advisory called Diggers and Drillers. I've been in the strategic investment game a while now. I thought I'd seen everything. But while I saw it coming, I really had no idea this financial crisis would get this bad. We all know by now that a good chunk of the world's banks are as good as bust. And like it or not, the governments of the world have decided to step in and 'save' them, and the rest of us, with "stimulus" packages. It's hard enough to predict the markets at the best of times. But with governments launching new harebrained schemes every other day, and more nasty surprises potentially on the horizon, it's tougher than ever. But there's one thing you can know with absolute certainty. And that's that the price of oil - eventually - MUST resume its upward trend. Heal Your Wounded Portfolio With Those who read the oil story correctly in 2004 - and bought into good,solid mid-tier oil and energy companies - have done pretty well for themselves. Here are some examples from the North American oil industry...
Comstock Resources, a mid-level oil explorer could be bought for just $19 a share in 2004. As the oil price rose - and peak oil started to enter mainstream thinking - its business took off. The stock peaked at $91... a 377% gain in a little over four years. Today you can buy a Comstock share for under $40. Or Clayton Williams Energy...
In 2004 stock in this mid-tier driller would have put you back $24. At its peak it traded at $121 - a 404% gain. Today the share trades for around $40. And Denbury Resources
Denbury is a great company. They've developed a unique ability to capture Carbon Dioxide (CO2) while increasing oil production from previously depleted oil fields. Back in 2004 you could buy into Denbury for $3.70. Last year it was selling for $42. That's a, 1035% return on investment in four years. Thanks to the recent mass sell-off - and the plummeting oil price - Denbury stock now sells for just $12. Right now, there are several similar examples on the ASX. I can't share you with them here because they're either in our existing share portfolio, or on my 'Watch List'. Here's the thing... it's companies like Denbury that will profit when the Long Aftershock begins... along with the investors who pick them up now on the cheap.
These kinds of gains are on the table for you again. Relatively safe, big oil plays that could return between 25% and 150% in the next 24 months. And then speculative, mid-scale explorers and supply companies where the sky is the limit. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying you should jump wholesale into the oil sector. A lot of companies have taken a mortal hit from this recession. Many won't make it out alive - even if, as I suspect, there is an oil price 'back-draft' by the end of the year. The way you make money here is put some serious thought into which oil and energy companies a) have the assets, projects and cash in the bank to survive the downturn (you can call these companies "cash-boxes") and b) will be first in line to benefit most from a "swift" and "violent" oil price spike, starting the last quarter of 2009. Correctly identify these companies - and own their stock NOW - and you WILL make a fortune. I've been conducting this very research since the start of the year. And, with your permission, I'd like to share the results with you - FREE OF CHARGE... Oil's 'Long Aftershock' Your 'Second Swipe' The glaringly obvious trade here is a play on mid-tier oil and exploration companies - many of which are trading at half last year's price or less. In my view, it's not just the trade of 2009. It will be the trade of the next decade. Of course, it's still risky. Some of the stocks I've picked are mid-tier companies. They've had a rough time of late. If you don't have capital to spare, you'll want to give this a miss. And there's the fact I might be wrong. (Heck, part of me hopes I'm wrong.) But I have seen nothing yet to convince me otherwise. You might remember that four years a pair of hurricanes blitzed America's Gulf Coast oil and gas refineries, forcing oil production to a crawl. That alone forced the oil price from $50 to over $70 per barrel, virtually overnight. Here you could see first-hand just how sensitive the oil markets are to even the tiniest supply bottleneck. Now it's about to happen again. And the smart money's already placing their bets... Even if you're only half-convinced yourself, I urge you to get all my latest recommendations and research in a new report called The Long Aftershock: You Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. Inside you'll get my very best ideas on how to turn the coming crisis to your financial advantage. You can download it - instantly and for free - by clicking here. All I stress is that you do it quickly. Whether this recession abates in 2009 or not, I expect a major rally in oil prices to come in the second half of the year. Here's how to take advantage... This $1 Oil and Gas "Cash Box" is Really Worth This middle-rung Australian explorer is so cheap it's unbelievable. The stock is down over 50% from this time last year. That's despite a healthy cash balance of $53 million. I can't stress enough how important cash reserves are right now. I won't even LOOK at companies that have an empty wallet. Many companies sitting on high quality projects either do not have money to operate, or are struggling to ward off predators looking for a bargain. This company has more than enough to survive, even if the situation deteriorates before the 'Long Aftershock' begins. It also has NO corporate debt. Very handy at the moment. But that's just the first reason to like this oversold explorer. The company has just reported to the market it has drilled down to a depth of 3,318m on a new well that was opened on January 19th. It's found up to 40 Bcf of gas, and will complete the well as a cash-generating gas producer. The fact that it's continuing to explore, drill and acquire new resources in such a challenging environment speaks volumes. This company will emerge ahead of the pack when oil prices recover. Take a look at this and you'll see just how criminally undervalued this stock is...
This stock trades around $1 at the time of writing. As you can see, 79 cents of that is made up just by the cash they've got in the bank! The company's diversified production portfolio, current oil production, gas production and quality exploration portfolio are not reflected in current share price This, to me, is a 'no-brainer' BUY. You'll get full details on this company in The Long Aftershock: You Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. Just click here to download the free report right now. "ARE THEY CRAZY?" If you're sold on oil prices going up long-term, here's another URGENT discount buy to add to your portfolio today. In fact it's probably one of the most promising oil plays in the world right now... and it trades right here on the ASX. Let me show you why I'm recommending this stock to friends and family as well as my readers... As I've said, that's your lifeline during a credit crisis. It means you don't have to go cap in hand to banks - most of which are refusing to lend anyway - in order to keep your business going. That's the first reason you should own this stock. Second: These guys are not only maintaining current exploration plans... they're EXPANDING. They've got the big picture in mind. BP boss Tony Hayward said recently: "When the economy picks up, demand will pick up very fast and we will quickly run into supply problems." This Australian explorer knows this. So it's doing its damndest to make sure it's first in line to fill the supply gap when it arises. Just last month the company announced plans to EXPAND their drilling operations in New Zealand from 120,000 barrels per day to 180,000 barrels per day. The Oil and Gas Journal reported on January 30th:
It goes on to say the explorer:
Look, I've done my homework on this. And you're just not seeing announcements like these from oil companies these days. What's more, despite the global downturn, this company is making enough revenue to fund development without digging into its savings. It made $140 million in the final quarter of 2008, despite the sinking oil price. And there's one more great reason to own this company now... On January 30 They Handed Investors $52 Million Income from your investments is crucial during recession.
Investment legend and author of Stocks for the Long Run, Professor Jeremy Siegel, calls dividend-paying stocks "bear market protectors." On January 30, for the first time ever, this company became a dividend payer - announcing a 10 cent per share special dividend amounting to a massive $52 million. That takes some chutzpah at a time when revenues are down, oil prices are low and cash is scare. To me it shows two things: 1) this is a company that respects its shareholders and 2) they're confident they can ride out the storm and start making a killing at the end of it. With a healthy bank balance, there's every chance they might issue another dividend at the end of the year. Especially if the stock price itself stays depressed. But you know what? I don't think it will. The stock now sits around $2.20. That's over $2 less than it was six months ago. But it's recovered from its low of $1.75. I believe it's a matter of weeks, maybe DAYS before investors who sold out realise their folly and buy back in... and other bargain hunters start buying as well. $2.20 is a flat-out bargain. I believe you'll see the share price at $5 or more by the end of the year - even if the oil price hasn't recovered. After oil prices recover - and they MUST - you could see this company trading at $8 to $12 in as little as 12 months. You'll get my full research on this company - future projects, financials, target price and more - in The Long Aftershock. Also... STOP PRESS! Besieged Aussie Oil Engineers
The credit crunch, the global recession, and the oil price crash have SAVAGED this oil and gas service provider. Its stock would have cost you over $40 in 2007. Now you can pick it up for under $15. Of course, just because something is cheap doesn't necessarily make it a good buy. What DOES - especially in recession - is good management, a strong balance sheet outstanding revenue potential. This company has all three. In fact it finds itself involved in one of the largest natural gas projects in the world. Denali - the Alaskan pipeline LLC formed by British Petroleum and ConocoPhillips - has engaged this Australian company "to design and evaluate the North Slope treatment plant that would be needed to process natural gas being fed into the planned natural gas pipeline." This deal was announced mid-February. The contract covers initial design work, including technical studies, cost estimation, schedule development and other services for a pipeline that would deliver 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily from Alaska's North Slope to North American markets. That's 1,700 miles of pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to an existing pipeline hub in Alberta, Canada. Past estimates have put the project cost at above $30 billion. Look, this is a job many oil engineering CEOs would gladly give their right arm for right now. It's an excellent cash-generator, even if the oil price stays low longer than expected. And that's what you're looking for... companies that can weather the storm and be best positioned to take advantage when the 'back-draft' begins. You can get my full research on this, and several other screaming bargain oil plays, in The Long Aftershock. Of course, you're probably wondering why I'm giving invaluable research like this to you free of charge. Well, with your permission I'd like to send you something else for free as well: a trial subscription to my newsletter, Diggers and Drillers. When I say "trial", I mean it. I wouldn't ask anyone to commit to anything in this environment without giving it a good test-run. If you don't like my analysis, we can part ways. And you can keep my just-published Profit Plan - The Long Aftershock: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns -with my compliments. However, I'm willing to bet you'll find Diggers and Drillers an invaluable ally in the trying months ahead. Here's why... How to Make Money on the Markets: 2009 to 2012 I get a lot of readers emailing me a bunch of questions. By far the most common one is this: "Dan, what the £"$% is going to happen to my wealth, investments and retirement plans over the next three years." Here's the state of play as I see. (It's not pretty, but it's reality. And I intend to help my readers deal with it in the best way possible.) Your wealth is now entering an environment where all paper currencies are going to start losing value to REAL, TANGIBLE things. This devaluation will be part of a deliberate strategy by national governments to prevent more asset deflation and severe economic recession. In other words: they're going to try and PRINT CASH to get out of this mess. This, obviously, won't work. The coming devaluation of paper money versus tangible goods will cause widespread economic and social problems all over the world. That's going to happen all this year, and maybe even next. The solution? Own tangible assets. If you accept this trial invitation today, I will go about helping you acquire and accumulate the best, most oversold tangible asset investments I can find on the market, both locally and abroad. I'm talking about gold... steel... oil and energy... agriculture... The kind of stuff that retains value - even if paper currencies burn. The aims of Diggers and Drillers are twofold...
Capital preservation and then profits. That's the Diggers and Drillers manifesto for 2009. I can't promise you we always get it right with our share tips and market calls. This market, frankly, is the most bloody treacherous I think we'll ever see in our lifetimes. But I can promise you this... You Will Not Find Better Wealth-Consolidation Our work is not compromised by any conflicts of interest or other agendas. We don't produce hype-up fear stories just because they sell newspapers. But, on the flip-side, we don't shy away from telling it how it really is. We publish our best investment ideas and we don't get paid a cent by any company to promote it.And there's never been a better time for you to get hold of this kind of investment intelligence. But don't take my word for it. Try my analysis out for yourself, starting with your free report, The Long Aftershock. Listen... even if you decide not to stay on as a subscriber to my newsletter, I want you to have this free resource.
So yes, the current oil pricing is signalling that petroleum is in surplus. But it's a stone's throw - perhaps even as little as six months - back to the world of scarcity. In a climate where genuine profit opportunities are as rare as a dodo, this is an opening all sane investors should be jumping into. To claim this complimentary report now, JUST CLICK HERE. Here's what else you'll receive with your Diggers and Drillers trial subscription... Your Trial D&D Subscription Package
Starting the minute you click, you'll be sent:
You don't pay for any of these four FREE reports either. They are yours, on-the house. And there's more... And remember, this is a 'no-obligation' invitation... Take the Next 30 Days to Test My Analysis Follow my predictions for the market. See how my analysis matches with events that are unfolding. Track my tips for the next two months. If you don't like what you see... for any reason... then contact me for a full, unconditional refund. And you can keep all the reports I send you with my compliments. That's a pretty fair deal, right? With that in mind, what will you pay if you decide to stick around? What is this One-of-a-Kind Investment I can tell you now there are few high-profile analysts in Melbourne and Sydney covering these stocks... let alone guys on Wall Street.
I certainly don't know many investment newsletters or tipsters - here or abroad - who've devoted the last two years entirely to the Australian resources story. Believe me, I've looked around... and If you could get this calibre of But why pay that? You'll be pleased to hear that a special introductory subscription to Diggers and Drillers will set you back just $134 for the first year. Listen, I can say with complete confidence you won't get this level of investment intelligence for anywhere near this price anywhere else in Australia. As reader Don L emailed to us recently: "The services you provide - Daily Reckoning (plus Money Morning) together with Diggers & Drillers and Small Caps - provide by far the best means for keeping up with things that I know... I will be continuing my subscription on an annual basis." Frankly, if $134 seems like a hefty sum, these investment opportunities probably aren't your cup of tea. How Will YOUR Portfolio Look When the Credit Crisis is Over? That, really, is the $64,000 question. The world's third great industrialisation will outlast this financial crisis. And right now there are safe, undervalued assets screaming out for buyers. The very best profits will go to investors who use their heads... while others are LOSING theirs.
Dan Denning PS: I can't say for sure when the Long Aftershock for oil will occur. But I can say this: it will happen QUICKLY. Perhaps well before this recession is over. Markets are forward-looking beasts. As soon as people start realising the oil we're going to need two or three years after the credit crisis ends just won't be there... well, who knows what will happen. But you can bet it WON'T be cheaper oil. To find out my best plays on profiting this now - while stocks are oversold - go here: The Long Aftershock: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. PPS: As I mentioned earlier, the Australia Association of Peak Oil says it's a case of 'when' not 'if' petrol prices here soar as high as $8 a litre. Could you maintain your current lifestyle if it cost you $350 every fill up? Even if you could... do you think small businesses, farmers, truck drivers, construction workers and airlines could cope with the cost? What about people who live in outer suburbs poorly serviced by public transport? What will they do when it costs more than a day's wages just to get to work? As Winston Churchill said about another approaching crisis - the rise of the Third Reich in 1936: "The era of procrastination is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences." Same deal here: Once this recession is over - and it will end eventually - demand for oil will start soaring again... and that's where the real problems will begin. You have a chance to prepare - at a discount - for the "period of consequences" before it begins. Just click here: The Long Aftershock: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. Calculating Your Future Returns It's important to remember that investing in shares can lose you some or all of your investment money. Please seek independent financial advice regarding your particular situation. While useful for detecting patterns, the past is not a guide to future performance. Some figures contained in this report are forecasts and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. The value of any investment, and the income derived from it, can go down as well as up. All statistics as at 7 May 2009. For any investment, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and keep in mind the ultimate risk is that you can lose whatever you've invested. If in doubt of the suitability of an investment please seek independent financial advice. |