Long term I remain Bullish

I happen to think the US will fight its way out of this latest land-price-led downturn quite successfully; and every single land-price-led downturn, the US has always come back stronger than ever.  One of the reasons will be the relentless march of technology, which goes in waves the same way as commodity prices seem to do.  I have said much about this in the past, in my previous speeches found here at businesscycles.biz/speeches   and scroll to ‘Energy and the Tax Base’ presentation as just one example, so I won’t use this blog post to repeat it, except to say that technological invention happens best (impacts the most) when inflation is low, as it is presently, and when commodity prices stay high, things go even better in the world; a great time to be a commodity producer.  Both these two things, technology and high commodity prices can be seen to have influenced the world most, between 1774 to 1819, about the mid 1840’s to 1865, the mid 1890’s to 1925 or so, the early 1950’s to 1974, and again, in my view, the fifth wave, the late 1990’s to around 2030.  All these periods have been highly productive and seen huge world economic booms.  I think this is repeating, driven by China, India, Brazil and now African nations industrializing and urbanizing.  The so-called Kondratieff wave.  This one is the fifth.


On the tech side, here is just one simple example of an innovation, from a subscriber no less, that has been hugely helpful in me organising social media matters…
cyfler.com  …an alternative business listing platform – think Yellow Pages with a Graphical Twist to it.

In essence, users can upload background images and amalgamate all their social media links, (youtube, Vimeo, picture, Flickr) into the web-billboard.
Then, you can share this (orange button) on various social media platforms such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter for their own followers to spread your marketing efforts.  Designed for Small Business Owners, and freelancers who can tap into all the free resources such as Youtube and Flickr on the Internet. Interesting idea here.
So, long term I remain exceedingly bullish.  I think a lot of wealth will be created in the next 20 years, from all this innovation.  It will be a great time to be alive, a great time to start a new business venture in the right growth industry  and a great time to witness children take up these challenges.  (Is there anything an ipad can’t do?)  The new wealth however, may not necessarily show up in asset prices – land and stocks – in the next couple of years going forward; the past several year’s debts have to be either paid off, or written off, first.  Such is the bottom of all real estate cycles.