A good economics article, from the FT here;
About the US Bond market in 2011. There is a great line half way through: “…the consensus is always wrong…” This is what I have tried to highlight for you over past years; the economic behavior at land-price-led lows. Assuming a repeat of the (so far) regular 18-year history, interest rates stay low for years after such a downturn, and since 1955 stock markets recover quite quickly off the lows, but go sideways then for even more years as a result of government actions to stave off the economic collapse:
Go to Current Forecasts and see the October 1, 2011 release, if not seen already.
We add to this, some Gann timing: after the lows of the 1990/91 land-price-led recession, the Fed only changed course on its interest rates strategy in February of 1994. From the October 1990 lows, this was just short of 1260 days, or 180 weeks. So we watch for a repeat this time; the March 2009 low plus around 1260 days is, as it happens, August 17th, 2012. August 2012 is already important, for a whole host of reason which I illustrated in the forecasting class, Feb 4 2012 held in Melbourne.
August 2012 will see a major trend change in the US, one way or the other. We can expect the tech stocks to again lead the market as they bottomed first, so watch December 2008 plus 180 weeks for a lead into August.
Watch also the oil count, August 2012 being the 49th month off the 2007 high.