Commerzbank in exclusive talks to sell GBP 4 bn of UK property loans

Here is the cycle, out of lows: reported here in a  Reuters article

Similarly reported here: in Bloomberg

The best report of the news is in the FT, but access is not always so easy: Financial Times

It’s the same as out of the lows of all prior cycles.  How well / how quickly this can get done – banks selling off their loans and / or clearing their distressed assets – determines, in part, how low the downturn goes.  Again, see Secret Life historical chapters for such past detail.  It’s clearly history repeating.  Since the Second World War, the Fed, in co-operation with governments have become much better at ensuring all the bad loans are not dumped ‘all at once’ on the market.

Every cycle since 1800 in the US, the debt numbers have gotten larger and larger.  This new cycle has started the same way as all the prior ones and foreshadows yet another boom, then bust.  Remember though, they build slowly over the first 7 year segment and we are only just emerging from the prior one.

We’ve seen it all before, written up in Secret Life.  So if you can see such repeats, it helps you know where you are in the cycle.  It is not telling us how big the next cycle might be; we have to wait to see what unfolds for that.  But you can see, just like past cycles, government and the Fed doing everything they can to rescue the system, rather than design a better system to avoid a repeat.