The ‘political elite’ out to impeach Donald Trump
Friday, 30 November 2018
Chiang Mai, Thailand
By Jason Stevenson
- Deplorably part of the ‘great unwashed’
- History is a great roadmap…
- No end in sight
- Our best for 2019
Let’s address the elephant in the room.
Few people believe that US President Donald Trump will get impeached. Port Phillip Insider Editor Bernd Struben wrote on Tuesday, for example (my emphasis added):
‘…we should prepare for the spectre of impeachment to rear its ugly head in 2019.
‘Now that’s unlikely to succeed, as the Republican dominated Senate would also need to vote to remove Trump. Unless some clearly impeachable offences come to light, that’s doubtful.’
Yes, the Democrats control the House and Republicans the Senate in the US. Theory suggests that, if the Democrats pass an impeachment bill through the house, the Republicans will laugh at it. But, I believe the majority give the US government too much credit. Republicans and Democrats are akin to Australia’s Liberal and Labor.
There’s little real difference.
Career politicians stand for one thing around the world. BIG government. We ― the Great Unwashed ― are viewed as mere mortals.
Remember, Hillary Clinton called half of Donald Trump’s supporters a ‘basket of deplorables’, according to the BBC on 10 September, 2016. Speaking at a fundraiser, she said they were ‘racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it.’ Put differently, if someone wanted change from government over-promising and under-delivering, and voted for Donald Trump, they are a deplorable.
We ― the deplorables ― are laughed at by the political elite. Remember the last Australian election? Liberal and Labor came into it with zero policies! It was a joke.
We ended up with a hung government.
The bottom line is, career politicians couldn’t care less about anything but themselves and getting votes at the next election. They don’t like change, they like things as they are. Trump is a threat to the US political establishment. I believe they are desperate to get him out of power, whether Democrats or Republicans. Career politicians want to return Washington to the former ‘glory days’, when they could do whatever they wanted.
I analysed this topic, and what it could mean for investors, at length in my new free special report, here. But there’s more to the story. I’ll explain after the market data…
Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 27.59 points, or 0.11%.
The S&P 500 fell 6.03 points, or 0.22%.
In Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 index finished up 5.87 points, or 0.19%. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 rose 0.49%, and Germany’s DAX closed down 0.65 points, or 0.0057%.
In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 65.41 points, or 0.29%. China’s CSI 300 is up 0.47%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is down 73.30 points, or 1.27%.
On the commodities markets, West Texas Intermediate crude oil is US$51.68 per barrel. Brent crude is US$60.26 per barrel.
Turning to gold, the yellow metal is trading for US$1,224.28 (AU$1,672.99) per troy ounce. Silver is US$14.31 (AU$19.55) per troy ounce.
One bitcoin is worth US$4,227.71.
The Aussie dollar is worth 73.18 US cents.
Deplorably part of the ‘great unwashed’
Donald Trump isn’t a career politician. Most of the ‘club’ didn’t support him in the last US election.
Reuters reported on 5 November, 2017:
‘George H.W. Bush and his son George W. Bush did not vote for fellow Republican Donald Trump last year, says the author of a new book on the 41st and 43rd U.S. presidents in which they open up about their disapproval of the man now occupying the White House.’
The Bushs didn’t vote for Donald Trump, which is no surprise. Trump isn’t a member of the political elite. Trump is a billionaire career businessman and on record for wanting to drain the swamp!
The US has never been more divided. With Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats the house, the US is pretty much looking at a dysfunctional government heading into the 2020 Presidential Election.
I believe you’re likely to see few policy achievements.
The Trump administration is likely to be fighting controversy after controversy in the months ahead. That’s exactly what happened when he started his Presidency, mind you. It’s also why the US Dollar Index nosedived from over $1 in 2017 to 88 cents in early 2018, which drove the gold price higher.
I believe history will repeat.
But to make matters worse, regardless of the cost, various factions of the political elite in Washington seem desperate to impeach Trump. Vox reported on 13 November, for example:
‘Just one week into his new job as acting attorney general, Matt Whitaker is under siege.
‘He’s deeply distrusted at the Justice Department. There are widespread fears that he might try to squelch investigations into President Trump. There are questions about his background— and even about whether his appointment is illegal.
‘Before joining the Justice Department in the fall of 2017, Whitaker was a harsh public critic of special counsel Robert Mueller. Not only did he publicly opine that the Trump campaign hadn’t colluded with Russia and that there was no obstruction of justice case against the president, but he mused about how a replacement for Jeff Sessions could rein Mueller in.’
I believe career politicians from both political parties might refuse to work with Trump into 2020. That happened during 2017. Republicans voted against the repeal of Obamacare for example. Remember, Former US Senator John McCain came out of sick leave just to vote it down.
His was the deciding vote.
Trump is fighting an uphill battle against the political elite.
Donald Trump is likely to be swept from scandal to scandal into 2020. So don’t expect much to change…
In the event that Donald Trump is impeached ― most likely dishonestly by various factions of the political elite ― before the next Presidential election, we could see the greenback crash and the gold price skyrocket into 2019/2020. That’s when I expect it to temporarily peak, before crashing during the next potential financial crisis.
Still, with few connecting the dots behind the scenes, you’re looking at a massive opportunity to buy the best gold stocks today.
History is a great roadmap…
During the Watergate scandal, the yellow metal surged between 1972 and 1974. US President Richard Nixon was named as unindicted co-conspirator in the indictment of seven former aids in March 1974. He resigned so that he wouldn’t get impeached in August 1974:
Source: Market Watch
Click to enlarge
Here’s what happened to the gold price at the time:
Source: Lombardi Letter
Click to enlarge
The yellow line shows the gold price and the black line shows the US Dow Jones Industrials Index. Gold tripled from its low of $60 per ounce to a high of US$180 per ounce during the Watergate scandal. It then crashed by 50% from 1974 to 1976, when a deep recession hit the US and the constitutional crisis was over.
You could see a final bear market rally into 2020. That’s when the next financial crisis, and major geopolitical or political event could blow up.
Gold, historically, rallies into major crises and crashes during or following them. As shown above, the yellow metal rallied during the Watergate scandal ― it caused a significant amount of uncertainty. Gold peaked when Nixon was named in the indictment of his former aids in March 1974 — when the unknown (uncertainty) became known (certain).
No end in sight
The witch hunt against Donald Trump is unlikely to die down.
I believe someone could even make up a lie to dethrone the US President, if they can’t do it with truth. So, despite the current weakness in the gold price, if the witch hunt heats up, history could repeat and gold could slingshot higher during December ― similar to every year since 2014:
Click to enlarge
Considering the historical correlation the final gold bear market rally ― and the best yet ― could start in late December. If I’m correct, a portfolio of precious metal stocks with the most potential ― including the three companies recommended below ― stand to deliver superior gains into 2020.
Our best for 2019
Finally, I need to give you a heads up of a fascinating little thought experiment we’ve had on the back-burner for a while.
Six months ago, our publisher, Kris Sayce, created a think-tank of our best analysts here at Port Phillip Publishing.
He gave them a single goal: figure which stocks are going to dominate the 2020s.
Not just ASX stocks. Which stocks have the potential dominate the entire world in the next decade like Apple, Netflix, Google, Amazon and Facebook dominated this one.
The idea is simple. If we get a few right, and you buy them now, you could make a serious return on them over the next 10 years.
Our team used a combination of methodologies. And had weeks of prolonged arguments. But a consensus of sorts has been reached.
And we have arrived at 10 potential 2020s superstars. Who they are will probably surprise you. We name them on 5 December (next Wednesday…) so keep your eyes out then.