A Fat Tail Event to Rule Them All
Friday, 9 April 2021
By James Woodburn
[4 min read]
- A changing of the gold guard
- The ‘fat tail’
- A new money game…
- The most important wealth issue you’ll face in your lifetime
- Please let me know your thoughts…
Sometimes we all need a little reminder…
And that’s the thrust of today’s Insider.
It’s to remind you (our subscribers old and new) and us (our staff old and new) what we’re all about and the value we aim to bring you.
And then to give to you a glimpse into an event that’s taking place right now that promises to completely transform the way we transact, do business, get paid and pay for things.
But first, today is a sad and happy day…
A changing of the gold guard
After nearly 12 years with us, today is Shae ‘the one and only’ Russell’s last official day at Fat Tail Media/Port Phillip Publishing.
I’m sad because not only has Shae developed and grown through sheer grit and hard work into one of our key experts these past years…and is a great writer, stock analyst and personality…she is also a great friend and colleague who is a big part of why I so enjoy coming into work each day.
We are a publishing and financial research company. But really, we are a company of great ideas, formed by great people. And Shae is among the greats (and that’s not even taking into account her legendary sneezes!).
But I’m also happy because she’s been given an opportunity to embark on a new venture in her career inside the gold market. You can follow her on Twitter here @shaearussell.
But from my point of view, I just want to say on the record that it’s been an absolute pleasure to have been part of Shae’s journey of success, which will only flourish from here onwards.
Obviously, big shoes like Shae’s will be hard to fill. But fill them we have!
Especially for subscribers of Rock Stock Insider and Hard Money Trader, next week Greg will be introducing a new gold investor and fund manager joining our ranks. He’s got a ton of proven experience in the gold and equity markets and we can’t wait to show what he’ll bring to the table. He’s bursting with ideas. So watch this space!
Now, talking of ideas…
The ‘fat tail’
Officially, we describe ourselves as Australia’s leading provider of completely independent financial analysis.
But our primary focus is exploring ‘fat tail’ ideas and events, and working out ways for you to anticipate and invest around them…before they move into the mainstream.
A ‘fat tail’ is a highly unlikely and unexpected occurrence…with extreme disruptive consequences.
You can look at the distribution of events — in the markets, and in life — as a bell curve (like this one below). The most likely to happen events bunch up in the middle of the curve (the mean).
Scientists and mathematicians who delve into probabilities find that there is a bell curve distribution — the most likely to happen events cluster in the middle of the curve.
The hyper-rare (but often extremely significant) investment portfolio-altering events are registered right out on the fringe.
Fat tail events are located miles away from that middle.
But if you can front-run such an event…before it marches towards the middle…it can have profound impacts on your wealth and financial security.
That’s our modus operandi as an investment research firm here in Australia.
To explore and anticipate those events…and make bold recommendations to (hopefully) make money from them as they move from the fat tails…towards the middle of the bell curve.
But there’s one such event talking place right now that we believe is the fattest tail of them all…
In the words of tech entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan, something called ‘decentralising’ is about to ‘swallow the world’.
But what does that mean, exactly?
A new money game…
This year you’ve watched decentralised money elbow its way into the mainstream.
Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s most famous cryptocurrency, has rampaged up in price more than 80%.
But, beneath the surface, there’s more to this than the world’s biggest organisations and powers (Tesla, PayPal, Visa, etc) finally giving crypto the green-light…
It represents an entirely new game in world money…and the system in which it is played, created and manipulated.
You’ve witnessed all kinds of asset markets — not just property and stocks — go absolutely bonkers. Even traditionally risk-averse investors are buying everything from small-cap stocks to hot tech IPOs to collectables to ‘digital art assets’.
That’s a prime symptom of the old money game breaking apart like the Titanic sinking to the ocean floor…
You’re grappling with zero interest rates…central banks going nuclear on their stimulus measures…and unprecedented border controls worldwide disrupting the entire way of global life we’ve known for 100 years.
And while all this is going on…
…a curious thing called ‘decentralised finance’ is being talked about more and more in smart money circles and the corridors of power.
Something profound is happening here.
I’m guessing you may already sense it.
But it’s still blurry and unrefined.
That’s why, starting in the coming weeks, we are focusing much of our publishing efforts to putting all this into sharp focus for you.
The most important wealth issue you’ll face in your lifetime
That may seem like a hyperbolic claim.
But I stand by it.
And you’ll get initiated into the ‘new game fold’ in the weeks to come, there’s a very good chance you’ll become a true believer as well.
You can sit back and watch this great step-change take place as a dispassionate observer. With no skin in the game. With everything to lose and nothing to gain.
You can explore ways to better position yourself to emerge from this transition on the right side of the ledger.
We’re going to be talking about the future of commerce and business…the future of digital money…the future of income…the future of gold…and the future of the stock market.
For example, imagine a stock market with no middlemen. No brokers. No clearing houses. A completely dependable technology that lets you trade stocks without having to trust or have your ticket clipped by any third party.
Buying and selling where the settling and clearing is done instantaneously. And with exceptional security.
This is where we are heading. It’s closer than you think.
And what about the actual listed companies who are, right now, adapting to this new trend before everyone else?
Those would be the kind of stocks you want to own, right?
Internet companies usurped oil and banking companies to become the most valuable corporations in the world over the last 20 years.
What will be the ‘new game’ investment ideas to challenge and take over the dominance of even the current internet giants? Where will you find them?
We’ll explore answers to those questions too.
Please let me know your thoughts…
As always, please let us know if this prospect intrigues you and if you have nay questions.
Write to Greg and I at firstname.lastname@example.org.
We’ll make answering them part of the agenda for what’s coming in the weeks ahead.
Those who’ve controlled the old game for so long…especially those middlemen we’ve been talking about…well, let’s just call them perturbed by all this.
The GameStop affair at the start of this year terrified them. We’ll touch on this…but that was a prime example of the new game making its way into the real world. And centralised authorities were not very happy about it at all.
Point is we are all at the start of something very big.
It’s our job to help you understand what’s ahead…so you are well equipped to deal with this fat tail event that’s fast moving towards the centre the bell curve…and hopefully take advantage of it.
We’ll be showcasing this across our free e-letters and also right here, in The Insider.
PS: There’s one more thing to say. From Monday morning Insider readers will be treated to an extra special series of essays I’ve been preparing with Tom Meyer, an algorithm trend-trader and a former VP at Morgan Stanley. You get a heads up about it tomorrow. And these essays will come each morning next week, as well as the usual issues on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Look out for them.